The US has committed to selling Australia 3–5 Virginia-class boats from the early 2030s — but only once its yards reach ~2.33 per year. They are currently building at ~1.1— barely half — and have to re-arm their own fleet first. Every month below the line pushes Australia's first boat further out, widening the gap after the Collins-class retires (~2038–2042).

Sources: Adm. Daryl Caudle Senate testimony (2024, ~1.13/yr); AUKUS Optimal Pathway & US Navy 30-Year Shipbuilding Plan 2025 (2.0/yr sustainment, 2.33/yr to enable transfers).