China · Grey-Zone Flashpoints across the Indo-Pacific
Unprepared
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Tasman Sea — PLAN circumnavigation + unannounced live-fire Coral Sea, off Queensland — Intelligence ships shadow Talisman Sabre Bass Strait / southern Australia — Dual-use survey ship along cable routes South China Sea (near the Paracels) — Unsafe intercepts of RAAF P-8A aircraft Yellow Sea — Flares vs a RAN Seahawk on sanctions patrol Off Japan (HMAS Toowoomba) — Sonar pulses injure RAN divers Darwin — Darwin Port lease — strategic-asset concern Senkaku / Diaoyu Islands — Record Coast Guard presence (357/365 days) Danjo Islands, off Nagasaki — First violation of Japanese airspace Yonaguni / Iriomote, near Taiwan — Liaoning first enters Japan's contiguous zone Western Pacific (beyond the 2nd island chain) — First dual-carrier operation, ~1,000+ air ops Taiwan Strait — Median-line erosion + Joint Sword drills Kinmen, off Xiamen — CCG patrols into Kinmen's restricted waters Matsu Islands — Sand-dredger swarms; both cables severed Waters off NE Taiwan — Cable-cut surge + pre-election balloons Scarborough Shoal — De facto control, barrier, water cannon Second Thomas Shoal (Ayungin) — Bladed boarding; a sailor loses a thumb Sabina / Escoda Shoal — CCG rams the PCG flagship, holes the hull Whitsun / Julian Felipe Reef — ~220-vessel maritime-militia swarm Spratly 'Big Three' (Fiery Cross) — Militarized artificial islands East Sea / Sea of Japan (KADIZ) — Joint China–Russia ADIZ incursions Yellow Sea Korea–China PMZ — Fixed 'aquaculture' structures; Onnuri blocked South China Sea (US recon area) — Unsafe intercepts of US aircraft & ships North Natuna Sea — CCG-escorted fishing + survey interference Luconia Shoals, off Sarawak — CCG cutter on station ~359 days a year Vanguard Bank, off SE Vietnam — Survey standoffs + 'Monster' cutter patrols Paracel Islands — Fishermen beaten; the 2014 oil-rig crisis Solomon Islands (Honiara) — 2022 security pact ~2,000 km from Australia Vanuatu / Pacific Islands — Spreading Pacific policing footprint Kiribati (Tarawa) — Diplomatic switch deep into the Pacific Directly against Australia · 7
Allies & front-line states · 16
Regional template · 7
Larger, pulsing markers = severe intensity. Hover or tap a marker for the sourced detail. The map shows the maritime & lawfare flashpoints; cyber, economic and influence coercion are in the cards below.
🇦🇺 Australia-direct Feb 2025
Tasman Sea
A PLAN surface action group circumnavigated Australia and held live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea (21–22 Feb 2025) on short notice, forcing ~49 commercial flights to divert — a step-change in PLAN reach. China called the drills lawful.
USNI News; NZDF; Lowy Institute
Source: unpreparedaustralia.com — live, sourced & human-verified ↗