Australia · Scenario probabilities
Unprepared
live · auto-updated
Major Cyber Attack on Australian Infrastructure48%
AI Disrupts Conventional Military Balance43%
Pacific Island Nation Signs Chinese Security Pact35%
Australian Energy Grid Failure33%
Iron Ore Price Collapse32%
Hormuz Closure / Energy Shock32%
Qualitative editorial estimates (a structured judgement nudged by news flow), not measured forecasts.