Alliance Tracking

AUKUS Tracker

Every major AUKUS milestone tracked with original promised date, current estimate, and slippage. Updated from Defence department statements, Congressional testimony, and open-source reporting.

Total milestones tracked
11
At-risk or delayed
8/11
Total slippage (months)
198+
First SSN delivery estimate
Mid-late 2040s
Capability gap risk: Under current slippage trends, Australia faces a submarine capability gap between the end of Collins-class service life (~2038-2042) and first SSN delivery (~mid-2040s). This gap — potentially 3-7 years with zero operational submarines — is the book's most urgent argument for accelerating the conventional submarine programme as a bridge capability.

The production-rate problem

1.13Virginia-class submarines built per year (current US rate)
1.13
now
2
US fleet
needs
2.33
AUKUS
requires

The US has committed to selling Australia 3–5 Virginia-class boats from the early 2030s — but only once its yards reach ~2.33 per year. They are currently building at ~1.1— barely half — and have to re-arm their own fleet first. Every month below the line pushes Australia's first boat further out, widening the gap after the Collins-class retires (~2038–2042).

Sources: Adm. Daryl Caudle Senate testimony (2024, ~1.13/yr); AUKUS Optimal Pathway & US Navy 30-Year Shipbuilding Plan 2025 (2.0/yr sustainment, 2.33/yr to enable transfers).

Milestone Tracker

Pillar II On Track+6 months slippage

Pillar II: Quantum Technology Demonstrators

Trilateral quantum sensing and communications demonstrators operational.

Originally promised
2026
Current estimate
2026-2027
AUKUS Advanced Capabilities Programme
Industrial On Track

Rolls-Royce Derby Nuclear Training Facility

Australia's A$4.6B investment in the Rolls-Royce Derby facility provides nuclear propulsion training for future RAN crew.

A$4.6B committed
Originally promised
2026
Current estimate
2026-2027
AUKUS Optimal Pathway 2024
Pillar II Delayed+18 months slippage

Pillar II: Hypersonic Weapons Operational

SCIFiRE delivers air-launched hypersonic strike weapons.

Originally promised
2028
Current estimate
2029-2030
DARPA / DSTG programme documentation
Industrial On Track+12 months slippage

Osborne Shipyard Construction Complete

New nuclear-capable submarine construction and maintenance facility at Osborne, South Australia.

A$8B+ committed
Originally promised
2030
Current estimate
2031
Defence Infrastructure Australia 2025
Virginia Delayed+24 months slippage

Second Virginia-class Transfer

Second hull transfer subject to US Navy production rate reaching 2.3 submarines/year. Currently running at 1.13 boats/year.

Originally promised
2035
Current estimate
2037
US Navy Shipbuilding Plan 2025
SSN-AUKUS At Risk+18 months slippage

First SSN-AUKUS Steel Cut

Construction begins on the first Australia-built SSN-AUKUS at Osborne.

Originally promised
2036
Current estimate
2037-2038
AUKUS Optimal Pathway timeline
SSN-AUKUS At Risk+24 months slippage

First SSN-AUKUS Launch

First Australian-built nuclear-powered submarine launched at Osborne.

Originally promised
2041
Current estimate
2043
Defence planning estimates
Virginia At Risk+18 months slippage

First Virginia-class Transfer to Australia

US transfers first of 3-5 Virginia-class SSNs to Royal Australian Navy. Requires US Congressional approval and RAN crew training pipeline.

~US$3.4B per hull at cost price
Originally promised
Early 2032
Current estimate
2033-2034
AUKUS Optimal Pathway, US Navy Congressional testimony 2025
SSN-AUKUS At Risk+36 months slippage

First SSN-AUKUS Operational

First Australia-built SSN enters Royal Australian Navy service.

Originally promised
Early 2040s
Current estimate
Mid-to-late 2040s
AUKUS Optimal Pathway
SSN-AUKUS At Risk+36 months slippage

Full SSN Fleet Operational (8 boats)

Australia operates a fleet of 8 SSNs — the minimum for continuous at-sea presence and credible deterrence.

Originally promised
Mid-2050s
Current estimate
Late 2050s
AUKUS Optimal Pathway
Basing At Risk+6 months slippage

Submarine Rotational Force West at HMAS Stirling

US Virginia-class and UK Astute-class submarines begin rotating through Henderson near Perth.

A$4.6B infrastructure committed
Originally promised
Q1 2027
Current estimate
Q3 2027
Australian Dept of Defence, March 2026
The book's argument on AUKUS: AUKUS is essential but not sufficient. An indispensable alliance is not a complete national strategy. The slippage data above makes the case for sovereign bridge capability — accelerated conventional submarine procurement and a Ghost Shark fleet of 200+ autonomous undersea vehicles — to cover the capability gap. Every month of AUKUS delay is a month of strategic exposure.Pillar 7: The American Alliance