Strategy Simulator
Adjust Australia's policy settings and watch the fifty-year trajectory update in real time.
2.13%
1%Now: 2.13%Target: 5%7%
≈ A$62B at 2026 GDP
61k
60kNow: 61kTarget: 140k165k
Now ~61k (recruiting since 1995-96 has missed every target) · grows ≤~2k/yr · programme target 140k via national service
6
6Now: 6Target: 2834
Crewed fleet = 8-10 SSN + 18-24 conventional. SSNs ramp ~0.5/yr (first ~2038); conventional tier faster from ~2031. The 200+ Ghost Shark autonomous undersea drones are a separate tier, not counted here.
31 days
30 daysNow: 31 daysTarget: 90 days180 days
0
0Now: 0Target: 2030
35%
35%Now: 35%Target: 75%85%
Norway: 70-80% · Australia now: ~35%
95$/t
50$/tNow: 95$/t180$/t
A$46B
A$20BNow: A$46BTarget: A$23BA$100B
2.3%
1%Now: 2.3%4%
1.48
1Now: 1.48Target: 2.53
Replacement = 2.1 · Programme target = 2.5 by 2040
311k
0Now: 311kTarget: 50k350k
Current ~311k/yr (ABS) · programme cuts to ~50k, allied/skills only
National Service
Fifty-Year Preparedness Trajectory
Capabilities are delivery-constrained, not instant: personnel grow ≤~2,000/yr, first Virginia ~2032 (first SSN-AUKUS early 2040s), first reactor ~2041, resource-royalty reform ramps over ~10 yrs. Even the full Programme is a multi-decade build — the line crosses "adequate" in the 2040s, not overnight.
Current PolicyThe ProgrammeYour Settings
202620452076
State in 2045
Current Policy
21
/ 100
The Programme
87
/ 100
Your Settings
21
/ 100
P1: Resource Sovereignty18
P2: Fiscal Engine19
P3: Industrial Base24
P4: Demographics & Cohesion12
P5: Strategic Decoupling15
P6: Defence Surge19
P7: Alliance Architecture41
P8: Northern Arc20
Defence Spend
A$96B
Gross Debt
A$1425B
Sovereign Wealth Fund
A$0B
ADF Personnel
61,189
Crewed Submarines
6 hulls
Coastal Batteries
0 batteries
Fuel Reserves
34 days
Population
36.3M
Nuclear Capacity
0.0 GW
Annual Deficit/Surplus
-A$6B
Energy Sovereignty
18/100
Scenario Assessment at Your Settings in 2045
Taiwan Invasion (Kinetic)
unpreparedInsufficient maritime assets and alliance depth to respond
American Strategic Withdrawal
unpreparedStrategically vulnerable if US commitment wavers
Hormuz Closure / Energy Shock
unpreparedOnly 34 days of reserves — critical vulnerability
AUKUS Collapse or Major Delay
unpreparedOnly 6 crewed boats — the submarine capability gap would be unacceptable
Indonesia Accommodates Chinese Basing
unpreparedOverall preparedness score of 21/100 is insufficient to manage this scenario
This is a simplified model. Capability is gated by affordability: a force is only fielded if the sustained defence budget AND the sovereign industrial base can fund and build it, so the capability sliders cannot deliver on a 2% budget. The critical pillars (defence, industrial base, fiscal engine) cap the headline — a rich-but-undeterred economy does not score as "prepared." Delivery pipelines are hard-coded (crewed submarines ramp over the 2030s-40s; the 200+ Ghost Shark autonomous tier is acknowledged separately, not on the crewed-fleet slider; nuclear reactors ~15 years). Fiscal projections assume no major global shocks. Treat outputs as directional, not precise.