The Energy Realism Score
Australia's energy transition is sold as a success on a single number: the cheapest power per megawatt-hour. Grade it on the numbers that also matter to a country — what it costs, whether the lights stay on, who controls the supply chain, what it digs up and throws away — and the picture inverts. Every pillar is sourced, and the one axis renewables win is conceded up front.
The Energy Realism Score
24/100
graded on cost · reliability · sovereignty · materials · waste · deliverability
Affordability25/100
~A$173bn spent, and among the OECD's highest electricity prices — bills rose, they didn't fall.
ACCC / AEMC residential price trends
Reliability — firm power20/100
Wind & solar count for only ~5–21% of nameplate at the peak; AEMO's Step Change plan still needs ~74 GW of dispatchable backup by 2050.
AEMO 2024 ISP (Step Change) / ESOO
Sovereignty10/100
~70–95% of the solar & battery supply chain is refined or built in China — a build rate Beijing can throttle.
IEA Solar PV & Critical Minerals
Material efficiency25/100
~124–130 t of critical minerals per TWh vs ~12 for nuclear; ~20 Mt of material for the fleet so far.
IEA, via World Nuclear Association
Waste & end-of-life30/100
~2–3 Mt of panel waste by 2050, <15% recycled; blades & batteries largely landfilled.
IRENA End-of-Life PV / DCCEEW
Deliverability35/100
Transmission has 2–4×'d its estimates and Snowy 2.0 is years late — the plan is slipping.
AEMO / TNSP project updates
This is NOT a carbon score. On lifecycle CO₂, wind & solar beat coal and gas — we concede that openly. The Score grades everything else the transition's accounting leaves out.