China's Footprint
Australia is spending A$173bn to reduce one dependence (imported fuel) by deepening another. The renewable build runs through Chinese refineries and factories at almost every critical node. This is the Unpreparedthesis, applied to the grid: the vulnerability isn't the ore — it's the midstream.
We dig it. China builds it. We buy it back.
The chokehold is refining, not mining
The China chokehold is MIDSTREAM — refining and manufacturing, not ore in the ground. Australia mines lithium, silica and rare earths; the vulnerability is the refinery and the factory.
The bulk materials — less concentrated, but not free
Why it can't be swapped out quickly
The IEA's own stress test finds that for graphite and rare earths, non-China supply would cover only ~35–40% of demand-minus-largest-supplier by 2035. China has already shown its hand — export controls on graphite (2023) and rare-earth processing technology (2024–25). A grid built on this supply chain is a grid whose build rate Beijing can throttle. That is precisely the kind of strategic exposure Unprepared was written about — only here Australia is choosing it, A$173bn at a time.