Data & Editorial Log
A transparent record of all data changes — automated official data updates checked monthly from government sources, editorial programme target changes, and manual variable corrections.
Official data updated. Source: NDIA Quarterly Report Q4 2024-25 (12 months to 30 June 2025)
Admin approved update to Taiwan Invasion (Kinetic): probability changed to 24
Official data updated. Source: Defence Portfolio Budget Statements 2025-26 (analysed by Strategic Analysis Australia, 2026-27 PBS release)
Official data updated. Source: ANAO/Defence Collins-class sustainment reporting; Coles Review 'two from six' deployability model (3:1 benchmark)
Official data updated. Source: DCCEEW Minimum Stockholding Obligation (MSO) statistics, March quarter 2026 (MSO Statistics 7 April 2026)
Official data updated. Source: ABS National Accounts (industry gross value added), as compiled by CEIC/World Bank; latest data point 2024
Official data updated. Source: US DoD China Military Power Report (CMPR) 2025
Energy Realism metric updated. Source: Ember, Global Electricity Review 2026 (World profile)
Energy Realism metric updated. Source: Ember, Global Electricity Review 2026
Energy Realism metric updated. Source: US EIA — Energy Explained: U.S. nuclear industry (reflecting Electric Power Monthly Table 6.07.A capacity-factor data)
Energy Realism metric updated. Source: US EIA Electric Power Monthly (data through December 2025, released February 24, 2026), Table 6.07.B
Grey Zone tracker incident added: Entity-specific rare-earth export ban targets MP Materials and USA Rare Earth (June 2026)
Grey Zone tracker incident added: Jury convicts Lu Jianwang over secret Chinese 'police station' in New York
Grey Zone tracker incident added: PLA/CCG 'exercises' at Scarborough amid alarm over suspected new structures on the shoal
Grey Zone tracker incident added: CCG floods Scarborough Shoal: 933 ship-days in H1 2026 nearly equals all of 2025
Grey Zone tracker incident added: Four armed CCG ships enter Senkaku territorial waters amid first dual-carrier Pacific ops and 45m aircraft close-approach (Jun 2026)
Grey Zone tracker incident added: Chinese survey ship Xiang Yang Hong 22 conducts unauthorized survey inside Japan's EEZ near the Senkakus (Mar-Apr 2026)
Ocean of Peace Alliance
Ocean of Peace Alliance
Admin approved update to AUKUS Collapse or Major Delay: probability changed to 23
Admin approved update to American Strategic Withdrawal: probability changed to 10
Admin approved update to Australian Energy Grid Failure: probability changed to 33
Admin approved update to China Economic Collapse: probability changed to 7
Admin approved update to Iron Ore Price Collapse: probability changed to 32
Admin approved update to Pacific Island Nation Signs Chinese Security Pact: probability changed to 35
Admin approved update to Taiwan Invasion (Kinetic): probability changed to 19
Admin approved update to Major Cyber Attack on Australian Infrastructure: probability changed to 48
Admin approved update to American Strategic Withdrawal: probability changed to 15
Admin approved update to Australian Energy Grid Failure: probability changed to 28
Admin approved update to AI Disrupts Conventional Military Balance: probability changed to 43
Admin approved update to Iron Ore Price Collapse: probability changed to 27
Admin approved update to China Economic Collapse: probability changed to 12
Admin approved update to Hormuz Closure / Energy Shock: probability changed to 32
Official data is checked automatically on the 1st of each month via government data sources. All changes require admin review before being applied to the platform. Return to dashboard →