Scenario Explorer
Fifteen scenarios test Australia's preparedness against divergent futures. Probability estimates track tracked variables. Each scenario links to trigger conditions, consequence cascades, and the book's prescription.
China Military
Taiwan Falls Without a Fight
China achieves unification through coercion, economic pressure, and political manipulation without kinetic military action. Taiwan's democracy capitulates. The regional order changes without a shot.
Taiwan Invasion (Kinetic)
PLA launches combined arms amphibious and air operation against Taiwan. US commitment tested. Australian logistics, intelligence, and basing support drawn in.
Alliance
AUKUS Collapse or Major Delay
US Congress fails to approve submarine transfers, or political instability produces programme delays pushing first delivery beyond 2045. Australia's submarine capability gap extends to two decades.
American Strategic Withdrawal
US reduces regional commitments under sustained domestic political pressure. AUKUS delays or downsizes. Australia's deterrence architecture loses its cornerstone.
Energy
Hormuz Closure / Energy Shock
Strait of Hormuz blocked by Iranian or proxy action, disrupting global oil and LNG flows. Australia's emergency drawdown covers fewer than 5 days at wartime consumption rates.
Australian Energy Grid Failure
Extended Australian electricity grid failure (weeks to months) from cyber attack, infrastructure failure, or weather event. Defence systems, economic activity, and social stability all depend on reliable power.
Pacific
Pacific Island Nation Signs Chinese Security Pact
Another Pacific Island nation (beyond Solomon Islands) signs a comprehensive security agreement with China including police deployment and potential military access provisions.
Indonesia Accommodates Chinese Basing
China secures a military presence in the Indonesian archipelago — a naval base, persistent air access, or dual-use port. Australia's northern strategic depth collapses.
China Economic
Iron Ore Price Collapse
Iron ore price falls below A$60/tonne sustained for 24+ months as Chinese property demand collapses. A$30-40B annual revenue shock to federal budget.
China Economic Collapse
Chinese property sector collapse deepens into banking crisis and economic contraction. Xi faces existential domestic pressure. A declining power is not a stable one.