Scenario Explorer
Fifteen scenarios test Australia's preparedness against divergent futures. Each links to trigger conditions, consequence cascades, and the book's prescription.
The percentages are qualitative editorial estimates — a structured judgement that starts from a fixed editorial baseline and is nudged within ±15 points by classified news flow. They are a way to rank and watch risks, not a measured or model-derived forecast.
Walk the war — scrollytelling wargames
Scroll the CSIS wargame: the opening barrage, the crossing, the submarines that decide it — and the pyrrhic toll.
The scenario Defence plans for — strike the north, blockade both coasts — and what Australia has to fight back with, unprepared.
China Military
Taiwan Falls Without a Fight
China achieves unification through coercion, economic pressure, and political manipulation without kinetic military action. Taiwan's democracy capitulates. The regional order changes without a shot.
Taiwan Invasion (Kinetic)
PLA launches combined arms amphibious and air operation against Taiwan. US commitment tested. Australian logistics, intelligence, and basing support drawn in.
Alliance
AUKUS Collapse or Major Delay
US Congress fails to approve submarine transfers, or political instability produces programme delays pushing first delivery beyond 2045. Australia's submarine capability gap extends to two decades.
American Strategic Withdrawal
US reduces regional commitments under sustained domestic political pressure. AUKUS delays or downsizes. Australia's deterrence architecture loses its cornerstone.
Energy
Australian Energy Grid Failure
Extended Australian electricity grid failure (weeks to months) from cyber attack, infrastructure failure, or weather event. Defence systems, economic activity, and social stability all depend on reliable power.
Hormuz Closure / Energy Shock
Strait of Hormuz blocked by Iranian or proxy action, disrupting global oil and LNG flows. Australia's emergency drawdown covers fewer than 5 days at wartime consumption rates.
Pacific
Pacific Island Nation Signs Chinese Security Pact
Another Pacific Island nation (beyond Solomon Islands) signs a comprehensive security agreement with China including police deployment and potential military access provisions.
Indonesia Accommodates Chinese Basing
China secures a military presence in the Indonesian archipelago — a naval base, persistent air access, or dual-use port. Australia's northern strategic depth collapses.
China Economic
Iron Ore Price Collapse
Iron ore price falls below A$60/tonne sustained for 24+ months as Chinese property demand collapses. A$30-40B annual revenue shock to federal budget.
China Economic Collapse
Chinese property sector collapse deepens into banking crisis and economic contraction. Xi faces existential domestic pressure. A declining power is not a stable one.