Hormuz Closure / Energy Shock
Strait of Hormuz blocked by Iranian or proxy action, disrupting global oil and LNG flows. Australia's emergency drawdown covers fewer than 5 days at wartime consumption rates.
Trigger Conditions
Consequence Cascade
Jet fuel prices triple within days — RAAF operational tempo constrained
Emergency drawdown exhausted in fewer than 5 days at wartime consumption — well below IEA's 90-day obligation
Diesel shortage affects military logistics and civilian supply chains simultaneously
LNG exports disrupted — economic shock to federal revenue
IEA emergency reserves activation — Australia's 'ticketed' overseas holdings inaccessible
The Book's Prescription
90-day physical reserves stored on Australian soil. Domestic refining capacity to process Australian crude. Gas reservation policy ensuring domestic supply. These are not expensive — they are existentially cheap compared to the alternative.