ScenariosAI Disrupts Conventional Military Balance
Technology
AI Disrupts Conventional Military Balance
43%
est. probability
Timeframe
2030–2045
Pillars stressed
AI-enabled autonomous systems, directed energy weapons, and sensor networks render conventional platforms (aircraft carriers, submarines) obsolete faster than expected.
Trigger Conditions
1.AI achieves reliable real-time processing of all-domain sensor data
2.Directed energy weapons reach shipboard and airborne operational capability
3.Autonomous drone swarms demonstrate ability to overwhelm conventional defences
Consequence Cascade
1
SSN programme value questioned — submarines detectable by AI-enabled persistent surveillance
2
Ghost Bat and Ghost Shark become more valuable, not less
3
Industrial base for legacy platforms becomes stranded investment
4
AUKUS Pillar II (AI, quantum, autonomous systems) becomes the core capability, not the supplement
The Book's Prescription
The denial doctrine's most resilient elements are distributed, low-cost, and redundant: coastal missile batteries, Ghost Shark swarms, integrated sensor networks. These are harder to obsolete than expensive platforms. AUKUS Pillar II is the hedge.
Stressed Pillars — Deep Dive
Pillar 6
Defence Surge
61,189 ADF personnel against 140,000 target. ~2-3 operational submarines against a 230+ platform target. Zero coastal missile batteries. 34 days diesel reserves.
8
/ 100
Pillar 3
Industrial Base
Australia imports ~80% of major defence equipment. Manufacturing is 5.1% of GDP — lowest in OECD. GWEO targets 4,000 GMLRS rounds/year by 2029. Ghost Shark and Ghost Bat are on track.
0
/ 100
Pillar 7
Alliance Architecture
AUKUS faces severe production risk: US Virginia class running at 1.13 boats/year against 2.33 required. Five Eyes integration strong. But an indispensable alliance is not a sufficient strategy.
44
/ 100