ScenariosAI Disrupts Conventional Military Balance
Technology

AI Disrupts Conventional Military Balance

43%
est. probability
qualitative editorial estimate, not a measured forecast
Timeframe
2030–2045
Pillars stressed
P6: Defence SurgeP3: Industrial BaseP7: Alliance Architecture

AI-enabled autonomous systems, directed energy weapons, and sensor networks render conventional platforms (aircraft carriers, submarines) obsolete faster than expected.

Trigger Conditions

1.AI achieves reliable real-time processing of all-domain sensor data
2.Directed energy weapons reach shipboard and airborne operational capability
3.Autonomous drone swarms demonstrate ability to overwhelm conventional defences

Consequence Cascade

1

SSN programme value questioned — submarines detectable by AI-enabled persistent surveillance

2

Ghost Bat and Ghost Shark become more valuable, not less

3

Industrial base for legacy platforms becomes stranded investment

4

AUKUS Pillar II (AI, quantum, autonomous systems) becomes the core capability, not the supplement

The Book's Prescription

The denial doctrine's most resilient elements are distributed, low-cost, and redundant: coastal missile batteries, Ghost Shark swarms, integrated sensor networks. These are harder to obsolete than expensive platforms. AUKUS Pillar II is the hedge.

Sources

  • ·CSIS / IISS (autonomy & undersea detectability — contested/forward-looking), 2024-2025
  • ·Australian Defence / Boeing Ghost Bat; Anduril Ghost Shark (A$1.7B), 2025
  • ·Unprepared — prescription

Probability is a qualitative editorial estimate, not a measured forecast. Lines marked “prescription” are the book's recommendation, not a real-world fact.

Stressed Pillars — Deep Dive

Pillar 6
Defence Surge
61,189 ADF personnel against 140,000 target. ~2-3 operational submarines against a 230+ platform target. Zero coastal missile batteries. 34 days diesel reserves.
0
/ 100
Pillar 3
Industrial Base
Australia imports ~80% of major defence equipment. Manufacturing is 5.1% of GDP — lowest in OECD. GWEO targets 4,000 GMLRS rounds/year by 2029. Ghost Shark and Ghost Bat are on track.
3
/ 100
Pillar 7
Alliance Architecture
AUKUS faces severe production risk: US Virginia class running at 1.13 boats/year against 2.33 required. Five Eyes integration strong. But an indispensable alliance is not a sufficient strategy.
25
/ 100

Other Scenarios

Cyber
Major Cyber Attack on Australian Infrastructure
48%
Pacific
Pacific Island Nation Signs Chinese Security Pact
35%
Energy
Australian Energy Grid Failure
33%
China Economic
Iron Ore Price Collapse
32%
View all 15 scenarios →