Major Cyber Attack on Australian Infrastructure
Coordinated state-level cyber attack disrupts electricity grid, water systems, or financial infrastructure. Below threshold of armed conflict but economically devastating.
Trigger Conditions
Consequence Cascade
Power grid disruption cascades into water, transport, and communications
Financial system disruption creates bank runs and economic paralysis
Defence systems reliant on civilian infrastructure degraded
Public confidence in government collapses
Historical Analogues
Colonial Pipeline 2021 (ransomware). NotPetya 2017 (Russian state attack, US$10B damage). Ukraine grid attacks 2015-16.
The Book's Prescription
Critical infrastructure hardening, government network air-gapping for essential services, ASD capability expansion, and offensive cyber deterrence capacity. This is not discretionary — it is a fundamental element of the denial doctrine.
Sources
- ·White House assessment (Bossert) / Brookings / GCSP (NotPetya ~US$10B), 2018
- ·CISA / public record (Colonial Pipeline 2021; Ukraine grid 2015-16)
- ·Unprepared (Howlett) — prescription
Probability is a qualitative editorial estimate, not a measured forecast. Lines marked “prescription” are the book's recommendation, not a real-world fact.