Signals
The developments that bear on the case — cost blow-outs, supply-chain moves, reliability warnings, material milestones. Each one dated and sourced. (Curated for now; a human-gated auto-feed is next.)
Transmission costs blow out again — HumeLink to ~A$4.9bn
The HumeLink line, first estimated at ~A$1.3bn, is now ~A$4.9bn; VNI West has gone A$3.3bn → ~A$7.6bn. The wires to connect remote wind & solar keep repricing 2–4× upward.
China tightens graphite & processing-tech export controls
Following Dec-2023 graphite controls, Beijing extended restrictions on battery and rare-earth processing technology — the exact midstream chokepoints the renewable build depends on.
Cheaper Home Batteries program — another ~A$2.3bn subsidy
The federal battery rebate launched in 2025, riding on the existing small-scale scheme — more public money layered onto the household build-out.
Rooftop solar passes 28 GW — now above the coal fleet's nameplate
Australia's ~28 GW of rooftop PV now exceeds the ~22.5 GW coal fleet on paper — but at the evening peak it contributes almost nothing, which is why ~74 GW of dispatchable backup is still planned.
AEMO's plan needs ~74 GW of dispatchable capacity by 2050
The 2024 Integrated System Plan calls for a firm fleet ~4× today's — 49 GW/646 GWh storage + 15 GW gas + hydro — that must be built and paid for on top of the wind & solar nameplate.
China still refines ~95% of the world's solar polysilicon
IEA supply-chain data keeps China at ~95% of polysilicon and ~97% of wafers — the most concentrated node in the entire energy system, and the one Australia's panels run through.