Nuclear Weapon Used in Anger
First use of nuclear weapons in a conflict since 1945. Most likely: tactical use in a Russia-NATO context or India-Pakistan escalation. Transforms global deterrence calculus.
Trigger Conditions
Consequence Cascade
NPT effectively collapses — regional nuclear proliferation accelerates
South Korea, Japan reconsider nuclear options
US extended deterrence credibility questioned
AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine programme politically complicated
The Book's Prescription
Extended deterrence through AUKUS and the US alliance. Australia's submarine programme is the most concrete contribution to deterrence stability it can make. The priority is ensuring US extended deterrence credibility and accelerating AUKUS Pillar II quantum and AI capabilities.
Sources
- ·Historical record (atomic bombings of Japan, August 1945)
- ·IISS / Carnegie (extended deterrence & proliferation), 2024-2025
- ·Unprepared (Howlett) — prescription
Probability is a qualitative editorial estimate, not a measured forecast. Lines marked “prescription” are the book's recommendation, not a real-world fact.