ScenariosAmerican Strategic Withdrawal
Alliance
American Strategic Withdrawal
18%
est. probability
Timeframe
2025-2035
Pillars stressed
US reduces regional commitments under sustained domestic political pressure. AUKUS delays or downsizes. Australia's deterrence architecture loses its cornerstone.
Trigger Conditions
1.US Congress refuses AUKUS submarine transfer legislation
2.US administration pivots to Atlantic or Middle East at expense of Indo-Pacific
3.NATO burden-sharing crisis diverts US attention
4.Major US domestic economic crisis forces defence reductions
Consequence Cascade
1
AUKUS submarine pathway collapses — Australia faces decade-long capability gap
2
US intelligence sharing through Five Eyes reduced
3
Pine Gap becomes diplomatically untenable
4
Regional states recalculate their alignments
5
Australian defence industry loses technology access
The Book's Prescription
Sovereign capability is what makes the alliance work — not the other way around. A US that perceives Australia as militarily serious is more, not less, likely to honour its commitments. Australia must be worth defending. The programme creates this.
Stressed Pillars — Deep Dive
Pillar 7
Alliance Architecture
AUKUS faces severe production risk: US Virginia class running at 1.13 boats/year against 2.33 required. Five Eyes integration strong. But an indispensable alliance is not a sufficient strategy.
44
/ 100
Pillar 6
Defence Surge
61,189 ADF personnel against 140,000 target. ~2-3 operational submarines against a 230+ platform target. Zero coastal missile batteries. 34 days diesel reserves.
8
/ 100
Pillar 3
Industrial Base
Australia imports ~80% of major defence equipment. Manufacturing is 5.1% of GDP — lowest in OECD. GWEO targets 4,000 GMLRS rounds/year by 2029. Ghost Shark and Ghost Bat are on track.
0
/ 100