ScenariosPandemic with Supply Chain Disruption
Other
Pandemic with Supply Chain Disruption
20%
est. probability
Timeframe
Ongoing risk
Pillars stressed
Novel pathogen or deliberate bioweapon causes global supply chain disruption while simultaneously stressing health systems. COVID revealed structural dependencies that remain unaddressed.
Trigger Conditions
1.Novel zoonotic spillover
2.Deliberate bioweapon deployment
3.COVID-class event in major manufacturing hub
Consequence Cascade
1
Pharmaceutical supply (80% from China/India) disrupted
2
Defence procurement delayed — components unavailable
3
Critical minerals supply disrupted while demand spikes for health tech
The Book's Prescription
Domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing, stockpiling of critical medical supplies, and supply chain diversification mandated by government as a sovereign resilience requirement. This is Pillar 3 applied to non-defence applications.
Stressed Pillars — Deep Dive
Pillar 3
Industrial Base
Australia imports ~80% of major defence equipment. Manufacturing is 5.1% of GDP — lowest in OECD. GWEO targets 4,000 GMLRS rounds/year by 2029. Ghost Shark and Ghost Bat are on track.
0
/ 100
Pillar 6
Defence Surge
61,189 ADF personnel against 140,000 target. ~2-3 operational submarines against a 230+ platform target. Zero coastal missile batteries. 34 days diesel reserves.
8
/ 100
Pillar 5
Strategic Decoupling
China takes 29% of Australian exports — deep dependence. But the iron-ore asymmetry runs the OTHER way: at 24.5:1 China cannot replace ~60% of its ore (a ~A$150B hit vs ~A$6.2B to Australia), which is why it never sanctioned it. A broad trade war, though, cuts against Australia (~6% of GDP vs ~0.5% for China).
50
/ 100