ScenariosAUKUS Collapse or Major Delay
Alliance

AUKUS Collapse or Major Delay

23%
est. probability
qualitative editorial estimate, not a measured forecast
Timeframe
2026-2040
Pillars stressed
P7: Alliance ArchitectureP6: Defence SurgeP3: Industrial Base

US Congress fails to approve submarine transfers, or political instability produces programme delays pushing first delivery beyond 2045. Australia's submarine capability gap extends to two decades.

Trigger Conditions

1.US Navy production rates fail to reach 2.3 subs/year required to both backfill and transfer
2.Congressional opposition to transferring nuclear-powered vessels
3.UK AUKUS contributions delayed by domestic industrial problems
4.Political change in Australia produces different strategic assessment

Consequence Cascade

1

Collins-class reaches end of safe operational life (~2038-2042) with no replacement

2

Zero operational submarines for 3-7 years

3

Australian maritime defence depends entirely on surface combatants and aircraft

4

Regional states lose confidence in Australian deterrence

The Book's Prescription

Bridge capability is essential. Ghost Shark 200+ autonomous undersea vehicles provide the ASW and ISR functions of conventional submarines without the lead time. Accelerated procurement of 18-24 conventional submarines from South Korea or Japan as a second-tier capability beneath SSNs.

Sources

  • ·USNI News / CRS Report to Congress on Virginia-Class & AUKUS Pillar I, 2026
  • ·Breaking Defense / Australian Defence Magazine (Collins LOTE, A$11B), 2024-2026
  • ·Defence Minister media release (Ghost Shark, A$1.7B RAN program), 2025
  • ·Unprepared — prescription

Probability is a qualitative editorial estimate, not a measured forecast. Lines marked “prescription” are the book's recommendation, not a real-world fact.

Stressed Pillars — Deep Dive

Pillar 7
Alliance Architecture
AUKUS faces severe production risk: US Virginia class running at 1.13 boats/year against 2.33 required. Five Eyes integration strong. But an indispensable alliance is not a sufficient strategy.
25
/ 100
Pillar 6
Defence Surge
61,189 ADF personnel against 140,000 target. ~2-3 operational submarines against a 230+ platform target. Zero coastal missile batteries. 34 days diesel reserves.
0
/ 100
Pillar 3
Industrial Base
Australia imports ~80% of major defence equipment. Manufacturing is 5.1% of GDP — lowest in OECD. GWEO targets 4,000 GMLRS rounds/year by 2029. Ghost Shark and Ghost Bat are on track.
3
/ 100

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