ScenariosTaiwan Invasion (Kinetic)
China Military

Taiwan Invasion (Kinetic)

22%
est. probability
Timeframe
2027-2035
Pillars stressed
P6: Defence SurgeP7: Alliance ArchitectureP2: Fiscal EngineP5: Strategic Decoupling

PLA launches combined arms amphibious and air operation against Taiwan. US commitment tested. Australian logistics, intelligence, and basing support drawn in.

Trigger Conditions

1.Taiwan declares independence or moves decisively in that direction
2.Chinese leadership calculates US will not intervene
3.PLA reaches operational readiness threshold (~2027-2030 per US estimates)
4.Domestic Chinese political crisis requiring nationalist distraction

Consequence Cascade

1

US deploys to the region — Australian bases (Pine Gap, RAAF Darwin, HMAS Stirling) become critical logistics nodes

2

China applies economic coercion — iron ore exports threatened, maritime insurance disrupted

3

Fuel supply chains disrupted — Australia's 34-day reserves become critical within weeks

4

AUKUS activates — Australian submarines drawn into intelligence/ISR roles

5

Cyber attacks on Australian infrastructure escalate to pre-kinetic levels

The Book's Prescription

Australia must not be drawn into kinetic operations beyond its sovereign interest. Contribution: intelligence, logistics, basing. But the denial doctrine — making northern approaches lethal — deters the conditions that produce Taiwan scenarios by removing PLA confidence it can operate in the south without threat.

Stressed Pillars — Deep Dive

Pillar 6
Defence Surge
61,189 ADF personnel against 140,000 target. ~2-3 operational submarines against a 230+ platform target. Zero coastal missile batteries. 34 days diesel reserves.
8
/ 100
Pillar 7
Alliance Architecture
AUKUS faces severe production risk: US Virginia class running at 1.13 boats/year against 2.33 required. Five Eyes integration strong. But an indispensable alliance is not a sufficient strategy.
44
/ 100
Pillar 2
Fiscal Engine
Defence spending at 2.05% GDP against a 5% target. Gross Commonwealth debt at $993B growing at ~8%/year. NDIS at ~$49B/year versus its original design of $22-25B.
33
/ 100
Pillar 5
Strategic Decoupling
China takes 29% of Australian exports — deep dependence. But the iron-ore asymmetry runs the OTHER way: at 24.5:1 China cannot replace ~60% of its ore (a ~A$150B hit vs ~A$6.2B to Australia), which is why it never sanctioned it. A broad trade war, though, cuts against Australia (~6% of GDP vs ~0.5% for China).
50
/ 100

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