Large-scale solar sets annual financial investment decision record at 3.5 GW+

Large-scale solar reached final investment decisions (FID) of 3.5 GW in 2026, with a further 1 GW approved in the September quarter alone. This puts annual solar FID at roughly 30% above the previous record. Rooftop solar installations reached 2.8 GW year-to-date and are tracking to almost match all of 2025 within nine months. Home battery approvals under the federal scheme hit 15.3 GWh by end of September, having more than tripled during 2026. Total renewable FID across wind and solar reached 5 GW to October, exceeding the previous full-year record of 4.9 GW.

Where this fits

This capital momentum masks a materials and supply-chain sovereignty problem. The panels, inverters and increasingly the batteries flowing into these projects are overwhelmingly made in, or processed through, China. A 3.5 GW solar build-out means tens of thousands of tonnes of silicon wafers, glass, aluminium frames and wiring manufactured or refined in coal-fired Chinese factories, with no domestic alternatives. The home battery surge amplifies that dependence: lithium processing and cell manufacture remain China-dominated. Australia is funding rapid decarbonisation on the back of deepening strategic reliance on the one nation with the most leverage over our grid.

What it means

Record solar investment looks like progress until you trace the supply chain. Each gigawatt approved locks Australia further into imported capacity and Chinese-controlled processing for materials that will need replacement within 25 years. A grid built on renewable speed and cost, without firm domestic generation or sovereign manufacturing, is a grid vulnerable to supply coercion. The alternative, nuclear generation using domestically sourced fuel and globally proven technology, remains banned by law, foreclosing the one low-emission, firm, material-light pathway to both decarbonisation and energy independence.