Gas prices: The US-Iran war is making Australia’s gas industry richer - SMH.com.au

Geopolitical tension in the Middle East has pushed global liquefied natural gas prices higher, boosting returns for Australian exporters. The article notes that Australia's LNG industry is benefiting from reduced supply elsewhere and elevated global demand for gas as an alternative to oil.

Where this fits

This is a cost story with a reliability edge. Australia's grid operators have leaned on gas as the primary firming fuel for wind and solar, treating it as abundant and cheap. When global LNG prices rise, the domestic gas available for power generation becomes more expensive to produce and more tempting to export. The article illustrates how Australia's gas is now priced on world markets, not locked into domestic supply at historical rates. This exposes the hidden cost of a renewables-heavy grid: it depends on gas firming, but gas is no longer a domestic fuel, it is a commodity subject to geopolitical shocks and arbitrage.

What it means

Australia's electricity transition has been built on the assumption that gas would remain cheap and plentiful as a backup to wind and solar. That assumption is now visibly fragile. Rising global gas prices will either flow into domestic power costs or create export pressure that tightens domestic supply. Neither outcome supports grid affordability or energy security. A firm, domestic, non-commodity power source would insulate the grid from this kind of external shock. Nuclear energy, banned in Australia, is exactly that: it produces electricity at a predictable cost, independent of global commodity markets and geopolitical events, for decades.