Yallourn operator locks in 2028 exit as mine wind-down begins - afr.com

Yallourn Power Station, Victoria's last operating coal plant, will close in 2028, with the operator confirming the mine wind-down has begun. The facility currently supplies around 10 per cent of Australia's national electricity demand.

Where this fits

Yallourn's exit removes one of Australia's last firm, dispatchable power sources at the moment the grid is supposed to shift to weather-dependent renewables. Coal's poor emissions profile and age make retirement defensible on climate grounds. But the replacement strategy, a renewables-heavy grid backed by gas peaking plants and battery storage, locks in higher whole-system costs than a path centred on firm, low-emissions nuclear generation. Australia is choosing the more expensive, China-supply-chain-dependent option, and doing it against the clock.

What it means

With Yallourn gone, Australia loses 1.5 GW of controllable output just as demand rises and weather variability demands more, not less, firm capacity. The gap will be filled by gas (emissions, cost, fuel exposure) and renewables with batteries (capital intensity, supply-chain risk, land footprint). Neither path is worse for emissions than coal. But neither path is as materially efficient or as strategically sovereign as nuclear would be. The 2028 date is now a hard constraint on transmission and firming investment. If those investments overshoot, the cost will be real and permanent.