Coal and gas export demand could dry up before 2040. Australia needs a plan for what comes next - Renew Economy

Renew Economy reports that coal and gas export demand could fall sharply before 2040 as global energy policy shifts toward decarbonisation. The article argues Australia needs planning now to manage the economic transition and avoid stranded assets in fossil fuel industries.

Where this fits

This is a sovereignty and cost story. Australia's current grid plan assumes gas will firm renewables for decades, and gas export revenue has funded state budgets and underwritten energy infrastructure investment. If global demand collapses before 2040, that revenue vanishes earlier than modelled, leaving a shortfall in both cash for grid transition and the dispatchable capacity the grid still needs. The article does not address how Australia will replace that firming power or the capital. A firm, domestically-fuelled alternative, nuclear, is banned, forcing reliance on imported batteries and gas generation that both depend on international supply chains and prices that may shift faster than policy can follow.

What it means

Australia risks a double squeeze: export revenues falling faster than modelled, and the gas plants that were meant to stabilise a renewable grid becoming economically unviable before they are no longer needed. The planning gap is real. The article does not explore which technologies could replace gas as firm power, or cost the grid transition under that scenario. That omission matters. A renewables-only transition leans entirely on batteries and demand management, both of which carry embedded China supply-chain cost and material-sovereignty risk. The firming alternative that could be deployed domestically with zero fuel import risk remains legally unavailable.