Philippine and Chinese Incidents Spike in South China Sea, Luzon Strait

Chinese and Philippine forces have clashed dangerously at least six times since early October around Scarborough Shoal, Second Thomas Shoal and the Spratlys, with a new flashpoint opening in the Luzon Strait near the Batanes Islands. The spread of coercive activity to the Batanes matters because that chokepoint links the South China Sea to the Philippine Sea and would be central to any Taiwan contingency. For Australia, rising incident rates raise the risk that routine joint patrols with the Philippines and the United States intersect with an escalation, and sharpen the question of how Canberra would respond if an ally's vessel or aircraft is seriously damaged.