Toward Decline
China is turning the waters east of Taiwan grey
Lowy Institute Institutional·2026-06-17PLAP5: Strategic DecouplingP6: Defence SurgeP7: Alliance ArchitectureP8: Northern Arc
Why it matters
China's use of coast guard operations to assert jurisdiction mirrors South China Sea tactics and signals escalating grey-zone coercion around Taiwan, directly increasing regional instability and narrowing the strategic space Australia must navigate. This reinforces the PLA's capability to project control in the Indo-Pacific and tests allied tolerance thresholds, bearing on AUKUS credibility and Australia's maritime defence posture in the Northern Arc.
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