Strategic NewsUnder Prabowo, Indonesia is more active than ever – but less free
Under Prabowo, Indonesia is more active than ever – but less free
Danny Gaida Tera ELgar / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)
Toward Decline

Under Prabowo, Indonesia is more active than ever – but less free

Lowy Institute Institutional·2026-09-06China EconomyP5: Strategic DecouplingP7: Alliance Architecture
Why it matters

Indonesia's shift toward China dependence under Prabowo directly undermines Australia's strategic position in the Indo-Pacific. A less autonomous Indonesia is more likely to accommodate Chinese military basing, naval logistics, or surveillance in the archipelago, degrading Australia's northern maritime security posture and fracturing the alliance architecture (Pillar 7) that Australia relies on to counter Chinese power projection.

Read the original report at Lowy Institute

Pillar tags and the significance note are AI-classified (Claude) and human-curated. The platform's own preparedness scores never move on a single story without a separate human approval.

Where this sits in the model

This development bears on 2 of the eight pillars of Australian preparedness — the overall picture right now is 5/100.

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