Strategic NewsSomeone is showing a lot of underwater interest in Indonesia’s straits
Someone is showing a lot of underwater interest in Indonesia’s straits
CIA / Wikimedia Commons (Public domain)
Toward Decline

Someone is showing a lot of underwater interest in Indonesia’s straits

ASPI The Strategist Institutional·2026-07-19PLAP5: Strategic DecouplingP6: Defence SurgeP7: Alliance Architecture
Why it matters

China is systematically surveilling critical Indonesian archipelagic sea lanes (Makassar and Lombok straits) that form part of Australia's sea-line-of-communication and constrain Indian Ocean–Pacific passage. The repeated recovery of Chinese-flagged underwater vehicles signals persistent intelligence-gathering and potential mapping of passages Australia and allies depend on, degrading freedom of navigation and regional awareness. Indonesia's inability or reluctance to respond decisively undermines the predictability of the rules-based maritime order Australia relies on, and suggests China is probing the limits of Indonesian sovereignty enforcement in its own straits.

Read the original report at ASPI The Strategist

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Where this sits in the model

This development bears on 3 of the eight pillars of Australian preparedness — the overall picture right now is 5/100.

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