Toward Decline
Indonesia’s Return to State Power
Why it matters
Prabowo's nationalist reassertion of state power in Indonesia signals potential strategic realignment away from US-aligned regional architecture, directly affecting Australia's Northern Arc security posture and the stability of the broader Indo-Pacific alliance system. Indonesia's pivot toward state-led economic nationalism may reduce receptivity to AUKUS-aligned initiatives and constrain the Pacific security partnership opportunities critical to Australia's decoupling strategy.
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