Strategic NewsIf China recovers Russian Far East coast, it will suddenly outflank island chain
Toward Decline

If China recovers Russian Far East coast, it will suddenly outflank island chain

ASPI The Strategist Institutional·2026-06-29PLAP6: Defence SurgeP7: Alliance ArchitectureP8: Northern Arc
Why it matters

This scenario directly undermines Australia's primary strategic doctrine: reliance on the island-chain and allied sea-control to constrain Chinese naval power projection. Loss of Russian Far East to China would create a new arc of Chinese military power north of Japan, forcing Australian defence to contemplate simultaneous threats across multiple vectors and degrading the effectiveness of AUKUS submarine operations in the Western Pacific. The article exposes a critical vulnerability in Australia's alliance architecture—dependence on unstable partner (Russia) geopolitics and the fragility of containment strategies against a rising power willing to exploit great-power fractures.

Read the original report at ASPI The Strategist

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Where this sits in the model

This development bears on 3 of the eight pillars of Australian preparedness — the overall picture right now is 5/100.

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