Toward Decline
Pressure Points: China’s expanding presence in the Pacific and Indian oceans
ASPI The Strategist Institutional·2026-06-17PLAP5: Strategic DecouplingP6: Defence SurgeP7: Alliance ArchitectureP8: Northern Arc
Why it matters
China's systematic expansion of military presence and defence diplomacy across the Indian and Pacific oceans—including Australia's maritime approaches and the Southwest Pacific—directly undermines Australian strategic autonomy and regional influence. This trend elevates the risk of kinetic Taiwan scenarios and reduces Australia's operational depth, necessitating accelerated maritime defence investment and alliance reinforcement.
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