Utility solar generation reaches record highs in NEM

Utility-scale solar and wind assets in the National Electricity Market generated 5.44 TWh in September 2026, up 7% on the same month in 2025. Victoria led output with 1,526 GWh across solar and wind combined. Solar curtailment fell to 22% of available generation from 26% a year earlier, suggesting improved grid absorption. Three large solar farms, Stubbo (400 MW), Columboola (162 MW) and Edenvale (204 MW), achieved 35% average AC capacity factor. The article notes Stubbo's integration of sheep grazing as land-use co-benefit.

Where this fits

This data point sits on the reliability pressure. Rising utility solar output with falling curtailment looks like progress, but masks a harder question: where is the firm power coming from when the sun sets or a pressure system stalls over the mainland for days. The 5.44 TWh monthly output is real, but it tells nothing about what fills the gap between that generation and actual demand, and at what cost to the grid and the bill. Solar's capacity factor remains around 21, 35%, meaning most of the time most panels sit idle. The grid must still source or bank the dispatchable megawatts that sun-dependent supply cannot provide.

What it means

A growing solar fleet without equal growth in firm dispatchable capacity or long-duration storage does not solve reliability; it pushes the cost of firming (mostly gas-fired plant and battery cycling) higher and leaves the grid thinner in shoulder and winter months. Falling curtailment might signal better grid management, or simply that gas generation has had to run harder to absorb the swings. Australia remains locked into weather-dependent supply backed by fossil gas, while the low-emission firm alternative, nuclear, remains prohibited by law.