Latest MT PASA modelling results show no Low Reserve Conditions

AEMO's latest Medium-Term Projected Assessment of System Adequacy, published 6 October 2026, has cleared low-reserve forecasts for South Australia and Victoria that were projected in July 2028. The clearance follows the October 2026 commencement of Project EnergyConnect Stage 2, which has improved transmission capability between those regions and New South Wales. The assessment period runs September 2027 to September 2028. This is the first MT PASA to incorporate the transmission gains from PEC Stage 2, and it shows unserved energy is no longer expected to breach the reliability standard in either region during that window.

Where this fits

The result is a net positive for near-term grid stability, but it rests entirely on a single, unfinished transmission project and comes after years of escalating reserve-condition notices. Reliability has become contingent on getting major inter-regional connectors built and operational on schedule. The grid is firming through wires and interconnection rather than through firm dispatchable plant. This approach is cost-intensive, regionally uneven, and vulnerable to construction delays.

What it means

Australia's electricity system is now explicitly dependent on transmission infrastructure to manage the output variability of weather-dependent generation. When coal plants close faster than replacement firm capacity can be built, the gap is bridged by hoping new lines get finished on time. This places reliability on the critical path of construction and leaves no margin for slippage. It also defers, rather than solves, the underlying problem: a grid with no firm baseload power cannot withstand supply shocks or resource constraints.