Elevated prices (in QLD and NSW) on Friday morning 9th October 2026 … and then SA a little later

On the morning of 9 October 2026, prices spiked to $500, $1,000 per megawatt-hour across Queensland and NSW during the early dispatch intervals. Wind output was limited across the NEM at that hour: only 700 MW in Queensland and 350 MW in NSW, with the bulk of available wind in the three southern regions. Solar had not yet come online. South Australia experienced similar price spikes about two hours later. These were the first sustained high-price alerts in months.

Where this fits

This event exposes the reliability cost of a renewables-dependent grid. When wind and solar are unavailable or misdirected geographically, the system must rely on whatever firm capacity remains. The spike is not a one-off anomaly; it is the predictable outcome of retiring dispatchable plant faster than storage or demand response can replace it. This is the core cost the transition has under-counted: firm power cannot simply be replaced by weather-dependent resources and called solved.

What it means

As coal stations close and wind and solar dominate the fleet, these morning gaps, before dawn, before the wind picks up, will recur. The grid must either hold expensive gas capacity online for these events, or accept price volatility that damages industrial competitiveness and household budgets. Australia is building a system that works well when the weather cooperates and fails expensively when it does not. A firm, non-weather-dependent alternative exists and is legally barred from deployment.