‘Summer is coming!’ … Part 1

Australia's weather forecasters are warning of a strong El Niño developing into summer 2026-27, with historical parallels to the 1982-83 event that produced Australia's driest 11-month period across five states and contributed to the Ash Wednesday bushfires. September 2026 was already the second-hottest and second-driest on record for the east. One forecaster notes the caution needed: strong El Niño patterns increase compounding heat, drought and fire risk, but long-range forecasts remain probabilistic, not deterministic.

Where this fits

This is a reliability story. A strong El Niño typically brings heat, drought and low rainfall to eastern Australia, where the NEM operates. A renewables-heavy grid becomes vulnerable when solar output falls in high-demand periods (dust on panels, cloud cover), when wind patterns shift with changing climate modes, and when hydroelectric output drops in drought. Gas plants can firm the gap, but only if fuel supply and generation capacity are available and cost-effective. Nuclear plants, by contrast, run at high capacity factor regardless of weather or season.

What it means

Australia's grid will face simultaneous pressure this summer: peak demand driven by heat, while weather-dependent generation falters under the same conditions. The NEM's reliance on renewables for bulk capacity means the system will lean heavily on gas firming, battery storage (finite), and transmission imports. A drought that persists into autumn could extend this stress across multiple seasons. Without firm dispatchable power, peak pricing will spike and the risk of load-shedding increases. That risk is not theoretical: it is what the 1982-83 El Niño demonstrated for the physical climate. The grid will face it without the option of low-carbon firm power that nuclear would provide.