Origin sticks by 2029 Eraring closure date, as plant runs at lower capacity factors and battles tube leaks - Renew Economy

Origin Energy has confirmed it will close Eraring coal plant in 2029 as planned, despite the station running at lower capacity factors and dealing with tube leaks in its boilers. The company has not signalled early exit, even as maintenance issues erode the plant's output and reliability.

Where this fits

Eraring is one of Australia's three largest thermal generators. A coal plant losing capacity to mechanical wear while the grid still depends on firm, dispatchable power is a symptom of the transition's core vulnerability: Australia is retiring coal faster than it is building replacement firm generation. The 2029 closure will remove approximately 2.8 GW of baseload power. By that date, the National Electricity Market must replace Eraring's output with either new gas plants, battery storage with gas backup, or nuclear. The government has ruled out nuclear by law. Gas firming for a renewables-majority grid is the path being taken, at cost and carbon intensity that the "clean energy transition" framing obscures. Eraring's mechanical decline is a countdown to a capacity crisis that will be met with gas or, more expensively, with oversized battery and transmission infrastructure that sits idle most of the time.

What it means

Australia is running down coal without having built firm alternatives at scale. The grid will be materially more dependent on gas imports and price-taker status in LNG markets, or on battery storage that requires processing and manufacturing controlled by China. Neither path is energy secure. The firm, low-emissions, domestically sourceable option remains legally banned.