Wholesale hell: power prices to double by 2029, modelling shows - The Australian

The Australian reports modelling from energy analysts showing wholesale electricity prices could double by 2029. The projection reflects tightening supply as coal plants retire and renewable build-out fails to meet peak and winter demand without substantial gas backup and transmission expansion.

Where this fits

This is the cost story the headlines have missed. Renewables per megawatt-hour are cheap; whole-system cost is not. A grid built on weather-dependent generation needs either massive overbuild, continent-wide transmission, or firm gas plants kept spinning to cover shortfalls. Australia is choosing all three, and the bill arrives when baseload coal exits faster than firm replacement arrives. The modelling assumes no nuclear alternative: that option remains closed by law, leaving gas as the only firm source available to stabilise the system.

What it means

Doubling wholesale prices will flow to household bills and industrial competitiveness. It signals that the transition has under-counted integration costs: the plants, wires, and fuel needed to make a renewable grid work in the real world, not in the modelling. Australia is paying a sovereignty tax too. The solar panels and batteries underpinning the grid are overwhelmingly made in China, on coal power, and that supply chain dependency deepens as we race to meet targets. A firm, low-carbon alternative, nuclear, would flatten this cost curve and sever the China supply link. Instead, the grid is getting more expensive, more gas-reliant, and more dependent on a strategic rival's factories.