Victoria will have higher electricity prices and more gas without VNI West - Renew Economy

Renew Economy reports that Victoria faces higher electricity prices and increased reliance on gas-fired generation if the VNI West transmission line does not proceed. The article cites modelling that shows the 190-kilometre interconnector between Victoria and South Australia would reduce costs and lower gas use by improving access to renewable energy from South Australia.

Where this fits

VNI West is a transmission overbuild problem dressed as infrastructure. The premise that interconnecting renewables solves cost and reliability is correct only if you accept the whole-system arithmetic: more transmission, more firming gas, more weather-dependent output variability, all to avoid a single firm alternative. The story bears directly on cost and reliability. It also reveals the structural vulnerability: Australia is building a grid that leans harder on gas to balance intermittency from one state to another, rather than deploying firm, non-gas generation that needs no weather hedge.

What it means

A renewable-heavy grid without firm generation capacity forces two bad choices: overbuild transmission to import power from distant, weather-dependent sources, or run more gas. Victoria cannot have both lower prices and lower emissions on renewables alone. The cost of VNI West, another long-duration, high-capital transmission line to solve an intermittency problem, is the cost of the path chosen. Australia remains dependent on gas for grid stability, locked into a supply chain and fuel price exposure that China does not face. A firm, domestic, low-emission alternative exists and is legally prohibited.