Fault Lines – China’s navy mobilises, Marines in Manila, PNG’s LNG

China's largest naval exercise of 2026 explicitly demonstrates offensive encirclement of Taiwan with 100+ ships including two carriers, signalling operational readiness and intent escalation. This raises Australia's exposure to regional conflict, undermines the credibility of the Indo-Pacific balance of power AUKUS and allied strategy depends on, and increases pressure on Australian force-structure decisions and political alignment.