Strategic NewsUS Unpredictability Is Giving Its Asian Allies New Reasons to Cooperate
US Unpredictability Is Giving Its Asian Allies New Reasons to Cooperate
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Toward Decline

US Unpredictability Is Giving Its Asian Allies New Reasons to Cooperate

The Diplomat Institutional·2026-09-04AllianceP7: Alliance ArchitectureP3: Industrial Base
Why it matters

The article documents a real strategic shift: Trump-era unpredictability is causing Australia's closest partners (Japan) and critical regional allies (South Korea) to invest in independent defence-industrial ties and European linkages, reducing exclusive reliance on the US security umbrella. For Australia, this signals both opportunity (closer Japan partnership) and risk: if the US becomes an unreliable alliance hub, AUKUS submarine timelines, Pillar II industrial coordination, and Indo-Pacific forward positioning all face execution risk.

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From the series
The Unprepared series · Part II

The age of strategic comfort is over

The assumptions on which Australian security was built for three decades have been overtaken by events. Part II of the Unprepared series.

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This week's Warning Time

This was AUKUS week, and not in the way its architects would have liked. An independent inquiry recommended scrapping the submarine pact outright, a parliamenta…

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Where this sits in the model

This development bears on 2 of the eight pillars of Australian preparedness — the overall picture right now is 5/100.

P7: Alliance Architecture25/100P3: Industrial Base3/100
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