Strategic NewsThe climate card China has yet to play
Toward Decline

The climate card China has yet to play

Lowy Institute Institutional·2026-11-12China EconomyP5: Strategic DecouplingP7: Alliance ArchitectureP8: Northern Arc
Why it matters

China is systematically converting climate vulnerability and US visa restrictions into diplomatic leverage over Pacific island nations, directly exploiting Australia's geographic proximity to a region where its influence is eroding. This accelerates China's ability to establish security beachheads and client states in Australia's immediate strategic arc, degrading Alliance cohesion and opening space for Indonesia accommodation or Chinese military presence in the region.

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Where this sits in the model

This development bears on 3 of the eight pillars of Australian preparedness — the overall picture right now is 5/100.

P5: Strategic Decoupling0/100P7: Alliance Architecture25/100P8: Northern Arc14/100
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The Index

See how all eight pillars score: the Strategic Preparedness Index stands at 5/100.

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The bigger picture

One signal in a live tracker of Australia's preparedness.

Every story here is scored against eight pillars — defence, energy, industry, fiscal reform, alliances and more — companion to the book Unprepared: Australia in an Age of Chinese Power.

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